Bears Get Back In The Game
Markets are selling off hard around the world. The press will have you believe the move is due to Friday’s jobs report and fear of recession. In my humble opinion, this is absolutely NOT the case. With the caveat that I am merely expressing my opinion on the matter, I believe the move is being […]
Artificial Intelligence-Focused Rally Steamrolls into Summer
Markets steamed ever higher during the second quarter, featuring the S&P 500 US large-cap stock index up +4.4% (‘SPY’ Proxy ETF) for a third consecutive quarter of gains. Initially, there were concerns about rising interest rates due to an unexpected increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which led to a rocky April. However, Jerome […]
Sell in May, Except…
As the misery that was the stock market in April came to a close, investors couldn’t be blamed if they were ready to throw up their hands and embrace the old Wall Street adage, “Sell in May and go away!” (More specifically, move to cash on April 30 and return on November 1.) After all, […]
Rob Hanna wins NAAIM Founders Award for VIX Whitepaper
We had some exciting news here recently as it was officially announced that Rob Hanna won the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) Founders Award, which is its annual white paper competition. The paper: Chicken & Egg: Should you use the VIX to time the SPX? Or use the SPX to time the VIX? challenges prevailing […]
When Being Completely Wrong Works Out
By now, analysts still calling for a recession in the good ‘ol USofA definitely find themselves in the minority and maybe even at risk of losing his or her job. At the beginning of last year though, the chorus of those expecting the economy to falter was strong. After all, the Fed was hiking rates […]
Stronger For Longer?
By now, everybody on the planet knows that “higher for longer” remains the Fed’s primary battle cry. We also know that Jay Powell’s merry band of central bankers will be “data dependent” when it comes to charting their next move. “Stay the course,” they say. And “we are committed to getting inflation back down to […]
Quarterly Rally Extraordinaire to All-Time Highs for S&P 500
The first quarter of 2024 was a period of significant growth in global equity markets, continuing the rally from late 2023. The S&P 500 index rose above 5,000 for the first time, hitting new all-time highs north of 5,200. This was driven by a combination of stable economic growth, falling inflation, an expectation towards impending […]
Bears Try to Get in Game
After an impressive string of five consecutive monthly gains, during which the venerable S&P 500 gained an eye-popping 1,060.55 points (or +25.3%) during the November through March period, it now appears that the bears are finally (as in FINALLY!) attempting to get back in the game. It looks like the raison d’etre for the sudden […]
History Says Stay Seated on the Bull Train
Long-time readers know that I tend to hang with the glass-is-at-least-half-full crowd when it comes to the longer-term market outlook. The reasons are simple. First and foremost, stocks move higher over time. Yes, I recognize that this trend, which has largely persisted since trading began, could end at some point. And if the U.S. democracy […]
Hoping Jay Takes It Slow
To be sure, what I like to call “Fed Expectations” has been the primary driver of the market action for some time now. You know the drill. When economic data or Fedspeak supports the idea of rate cuts in the near future, stocks rise. And vice versa. Simple, right? From my seat, this and the […]