Geopolitical Shock Rattles Global Markets
The quarter’s defining event arrived late February when the US and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury, targeting Iran’s military infrastructure and senior leadership. Iran retaliated and moved to effectively blockade the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-third of the world’s seaborne oil normally flows. WTI Crude oil surged more than +76% on the quarter, […]
Third Consecutive Banner Year Ends on Uneven Ground into 2026
The fourth quarter of 2025 closed out a remarkable year for US equities, marking the third consecutive year of double-digit gains for major large-cap indices. The S&P 500 advanced +2.7% in Q4 (‘SPY’ ETF Proxy), finishing the year up nearly +18%, supported by resilient corporate earnings, persistent enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI), and a Federal […]
Markets Rise on Trade Deals, Strong Earnings & Falling Rates
The third quarter of 2025 delivered another strong performance for US financial markets, with major stock indices extending their year-to-date rally to new all-time highs supported by solid economic growth, stable inflation, fiscal stimulus, and the Federal Reserve’s start of a rate-cutting cycle. These factors drove the Vanguard Total Stock Index (‘VTI’ ETF Proxy) to […]
Markets Push Aside Headline Risks in the First Half
Market volatility spiked in the second quarter as the S&P 500 dropped sharply in early April following the announcement of sweeping reciprocal tariffs. However, those losses were slowly and steadily recouped over the remainder of the quarter as initial tariff rates were reduced, and while economic growth proved resilient and inflation remained low, allowing US […]
Markets Sour on US Tariff Policy Uncertainty in the First Quarter of 2025
The first quarter of 2025 brought significant volatility to markets driven by competitive AI advances overseas, and uncertainty surrounding US trade and tariff policies. The major indices posted moderate declines, marking their worst performances since Q3 2022. While a post-inauguration rally initially pushed the S&P 500 index to all-time highs in late February when President […]
Solid Growth & Rate Cuts Power Stocks to a Historic Return in 2024
The S&P 500 rose to an all-time high in the fourth quarter, extending 2024 gains as election results raised expectations for pro-growth policies, the economy remained on solid footing, and the Fed continued to cut interest rates. The S&P 500 logged a modestly positive return for the quarter, and an annual return greater than 20% […]
Should We Stay on Bull Train?
With the election less than 24 hours away, it is safe to say that investors of all shapes and sizes are likely sitting on their hands today. As such, I thought this might be a good opportunity to take a step back and look at the big picture, macro backdrop. The Election is Finally Here […]
Fed Rate Cuts Leave Volatile Summer to End on High Note
Markets were highly volatile in the third quarter due to political turmoil, a carry-trade unwind, and economic uncertainty. However, Federal Reserve rate cuts and strong corporate earnings ultimately helped ease these concerns, pushing the S&P 500 to new all-time highs, up +20.6% year-to-date (‘SPY’ ETF Proxy) on a strong quarterly gain of +5.8%. Investor expectations […]
The Time Has Come
The phrase of the day on this fine summer Friday isn’t from any of the politicians seeking our attention 24/7 but rather Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Giving a highly anticipated speech at the annual Fed confab in Jackson Hole, Mr. Powell told us, “The time has come.” While the market expected the Fed Chair to […]
The Market Panic Playbook
As long-time readers are no doubt aware, I spend a healthy amount of my day trying to decipher the drivers of the daily market action. In short, whenever markets start to move quickly, I make it my business to understand why. My thinking is if I can stay in tune with what markets are doing […]