It’s Not the “When” That Matters
The stock market’s latest joyride to the upside appears to have hit a snag. Well, for now at least, anyway. Up until last week, the bulls were large and in charge based on the idea that (a) the economy and in turn, earnings, were doing just fine, thank you and (b) the Fed was about […]
The Historical Roadmaps for 2024
The drivers of the stock market at this point in the game are fairly clear. The Fed’s next move, the state of the economy, and whether or not 2024 earnings can hold up to the rather lofty expectations appear to be the top factors on investors’ minds these days. So far at least, the earnings […]
It’s Official
It took a while (as in over 500 days), but the S&P 500 and DJIA finally managed to close at fresh all-time highs on Friday. While the bears may argue that the so-called “breakout” must prove itself in the coming days/weeks (Martin Pring was famous for suggesting an additional 3% was needed as confirmation of […]
Federal Reserve Pivot Lifts Markets Higher
Stocks finished the year on a high note featuring the S&P 500 US large-cap index just below its all-time highs set in early 2022. Precipitating the recovery were falling interest rates after a Federal Reserve policy pivot that brought an unexpected end to its historically hawkish rate regime. The near two-year tightening campaign was intended […]
Leveraged ETFs – Issues to Understand
QQQ, on a dividend-adjust basis, is now up over 52% on the year and just made new highs. This can be seen in the monthly chart below. Meanwhile, TQQQ, which is the 3x version of QQQ, is up over 185% ytd (through 12/13/23). That’s a huge run, and on the surface it would seem to […]
Powell Spreads Holiday Cheer
Long-time readers know that I am a card-carrying member of The-glass-is-at-least-half-full club. As such, it shouldn’t surprise anyone that I have maintained a fairly upbeat view throughout this year. On the economy. On earnings. On the stock market. On the consumer. And, of course, on inflation. On that last topic, I will admit that the […]
The Words Matter This Time
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. Pullbacks in the markets end quickly when some Fed official, or better yet, a couple FOMC members say something “dovish.” You know, something like, “We see signs of progress on inflation.” Or “Policy is appropriate given the current data.” Or, well, anything including the words “rates” and […]
Rising Yields Cause Pause in Recovery
Global stock indices peaked in the back-half of July after having reached technical resistance just below their spring 2022 levels. The balance of the third-quarter saw modest corrections after the extended recovery that began last October led by the “Magnificent Seven” artificial intelligence darlings stalled out. Although inflation continues to moderate, with select components looking […]
All About Those Yields
In case you’ve been out on the golf course frantically trying to squeeze in those last few rounds before the weather turns, it is safe to say that the direction of interest rates remains the primary driver of the action in the stock market. From a near-term perspective, anyway. To be sure, there is no […]
All About Yields, But The Good New Is…
Perhaps one of the most important qualities necessary to survive long-term in this business is an open mind. As I’ve lamented a time or two hundred over the years, too many investors are focused on making market predictions and/or about “being right.” Yet, as more than forty years of professional investing experience has taught me, […]