Calm Summer, Stormy Fall?
US Markets were exceptionally calm and consistently positive this summer, breaking out to new highs while tacking on +7.2% to the S&P 500 US Large-Cap index (‘SPY’ ETF Proxy*), leaving it up +10.4% for the year. Bullishly, growth and technology issues performed better still. The only apparent crack in the foundation for the quarter was […]
Escalating Global Trade Tensions End First Half
As markets welcome Summer, US stocks demonstrated marked stability during the second quarter compared to earlier in the year. This was despite rising trade tensions as President Trump sought to improve the United States’ global trade stance through various and escalating tariff threats. US large-caps were modestly higher, with the S&P 500 Index finishing the […]
Stocks Hit the Wall – Global Economy Keeps Chugging
At the end of 2017, investors were focused on a phenomenal year in markets, featuring strong gains, exceptionally low volatility, and synchronized global growth. Three months later, two of the three have changed, volatility being the most notable. January took 2017’s “perfect year” to a parabolic extreme on the heels of tax reform. However, with […]
Rough Day in the Office?
A few notes about today’s Ground Hog Day “rough day in the office” across asset classes. Volume was notably low, giving the perception of a buyers’ strike headed into the weekend. While I do not expect “the low” was put in — one day does not a market make, and I don’t yet see anything […]
2017 Year-End Wrap
Stocks closed out 2017 with their first-ever “perfect year,” with each month recording successive gains (Business Insider, A Record Year for the S&P 500 Index, 12/29/17). Since the US Presidential elections, markets have experienced 14 back-to-back monthly gains, the most since 1995. The S&P 500 US Large-Cap Index (‘SPY’ ETF Proxy*) posted a total return […]
2017 Third-Quarter Wrap
Stocks worldwide posted another solid quarter, featuring an eleventh consecutive month of post-US presidential election gains. US stocks were up +4.5% through quarter-end, leaving price higher by +13.8% on the year (VTI ETF Index Proxy*), and volatility at quarter-century lows. Aggregate Bonds also performed well in spite of increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve-speak, up +0.7% last […]
August 2017 Perspectives
August’s “dog days of summer” brought a low volume, sideways trade to markets. The S&P 500 index finished higher by +0.3% for its tenth consecutive month of post-election gains, now up +11.7% for the year. A brighter spot for stocks was Emerging Markets, up +2.4% for the month. Bonds slightly outperformed, with the Barclay’s Aggregate […]
First-Half 2017 Wrap
Stocks have wrapped up another tremendous quarter for an eighth consecutive month of post-US presidential election gains. On this Fourth of July week, marking the midpoint of the trading year, the S&P 500 US Large-Cap Index is near all-time highs. Supported by a weakened US Dollar and relatively stronger fundamentals, Overseas stocks also continued their […]