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Jeff Pietsch CFA, Managing Director

First-Half 2017 Wrap

Stocks have wrapped up another tremendous quarter for an eighth consecutive month of post-US presidential election gains. On this Fourth of July week, marking the midpoint of the trading year, the S&P 500 US Large-Cap Index is near all-time highs. Supported by a weakened US Dollar and relatively stronger fundamentals, Overseas stocks also continued their out-performance, up nearly double their US counterparts.

Not to be left out of the party, Fixed Income and Real Estate also featured respectable gains during the second quarter. The only notable asset class loss was recorded by Commodities, down towards the high single-digits. In spite of a string of OPEC agreements to reduce supply, each time oil has neared $50 per barrel, US shale producers have filled the production void until price comes back down. Sector-wise, Technology and Healthcare were the driving forces behind the market advance, while Energy was unsurprisingly left behind.

Bullishly, the quarterly gains occurred in the face of seemingly relentless headline risks, ranging from the French elections, the escalation in Syria, Russian vote tampering claims, FBI Chief Comey’s firing, growing fiscal policy uncertainty, hawkish Federal Reserve moves, and various terrorist actions. On the other hand, earnings were largely supportive, leaving the options volatility index in May to record its second lowest monthly average since 1993.

In what is now the third longest economic expansion since WWII, US reports continue to indicate a slow but steady growth scenario. First quarter GDP was adjusted upward to +1.2% and unemployment posted lows not seen since early 2001. Growth for the year is still seen in the low +2%’s. At the same time, low absolute jobs gains and muted inflation have kept bond yields in check in spite of the Federal Reserve’s recent efforts to raise them, with inter-bank rates now set at a maximum1.25%.

In this regard, the recent bond yield curve flattening and an apparent disconnect between stock and bond performances will have to resolve itself. We will be paying close attention to these and other metrics as we head into the third-quarter of 2017, which also has a reputation for being one of the bumpier periods of the year. Meanwhile, it has remained steady as she goes into the heat of summer for this resilient and long-lived bull market.