Backdrop Remains Constructive
The State of the Market Long-time readers know that the primary purpose of my oftentimes meandering market missive is to identify the drivers of the current market environment. And since I spent a fair part of the weekend dodging blizzards on our way to Palm Desert, CA, I’m going to stick to that plan on […]
Is Good News Good For Stocks or Bad?
The State of the Market From my seat, the question of the day is if good economic data is good for the stock market, or bad? Cutting to the chase, the answer appears to be, well, it depends on the day. When Good News Is Good To review, there are times when good economic data […]
An Interest(ing) Development
The State of the Market Midway through February, things were looking good as all-time record highs were recorded by the major indices and the YTD gain for the S&P 500 was approaching +5%. But then it happened. On 16-Feb all heck broke loose in the bond market as the yield on the 10-year Treasury Note […]
Should We Trust The Thrust (Again)?
The State of the Market As a rules-guided money manager, I scan hundreds of indicators each week. I look at market fundamentals such as monetary conditions, earnings, economic data, and inflation expectations. In addition, I look at a myriad of technical indicators as well as “external” indicators such as investor sentiment and valuations. I combine […]
The Mother’s Milk of Bull Markets
The State of the Market It is said that earnings are the mother’s milk of bull markets. This certainly seems to make sense as it is easy to argue that expectations for higher earnings create an environment for rising stock prices. And don’t look now fans, but earnings expectations are rising. Yes, it is true […]
What Do The Cycles Say About 2021?
The State of the Market Long-time readers know that I’m a fan of historical market cycles. As the saying goes, history doesn’t repeat exactly, but it often rhymes. And over the years, I’ve found this tends to the case in the stock market, more often than not. To be clear, I am not suggesting that […]
Is The Reddit Rebellion Here To Stay?
The State of the Market It appears that all anyone wants to talk about these days is “Gamestonk!” And frankly, I can’t blame them. When a stock soars more 16 times in a matter of 12 trading days, it certainly gets your attention! For those of you keeping score at home, Gamestock (GME) closed at […]
Should We Be Worried About Valuations?
The State of the Market If you want to start an argument about the state of the stock market, the topic of valuations is usually a pretty good place to start. And to be sure, the topic is fairly complex. For example, valuation levels morph over time. What was extremely overvalued from 1925 through 1985 […]
There is Change Afoot in the New Year
The State of the Market Good morning and welcome back to the land of blinking screens. It is my sincere hope that everyone enjoyed the long, holiday weekend – I, for one, needed some rest! But now it’s time to get back to it. As we venture forth into the “brave new world” that is […]
Wall Street versus Reality
A tremendous final quarter for markets heralded in a new year filled with the promise of multiple COVID-19 vaccines, changes in federal leadership, added fiscal stimulus, and an on-going economic recovery. Global asset classes increased the pace of their advance with the S&P 500 Index finishing the year up +18.3% (ETF proxy SPY*), and the […]