New Information
Last week, we looked at three key issues that the stock market seemed to be struggling with: (1) The possibility of the Fed “tapering” their bond-buying program earlier than expected, (2) the potential for inflation to become ingrained (aka non-transitory), and (3) the unavoidable slowdown in economic/earnings growth that will be coming down the pike […]
Three Issues Markets Are Working Through
The DJIA and S&P 500 have been moving sideways for much of the past month, while the consolidation action in small-caps and the NASDAQ 100 has been going on even longer. Concerns over inflation, and in turn, the Fed’s response – as in how soon Powell & Co would begin “tapering” their bond-buying program – […]
A Chart That Makes Me Say, Wow!
While almost everyone is still talking about Friday’s jobs report and whether or not inflation is here to stay, I’d like to use my pixels to talk about something else on this cold and rainy/snowy Monday morning in Colorado. You see, when doing my review of news, charts, and models, over the weekend, one thing […]
What Could Go Wrong?
My friend/colleague Mr. Jeff Pietsch, CFA, and I were asked last week to write an article speculating on the reasons why the U.S. stock market could experience a correction in the coming weeks/months ahead. It was a fun exercise and I thought it might be worth a read. So, without further ado, here are “eight […]
Is Sideways The New Down?
The State of the Market Stocks moved largely sideways last week in response to what appears to be conflicting narratives. But then again, given the overbought nature of the market and the overexuberant levels of sentiment, sideways beats the alternative. This is not to say that the bears haven’t made an effort recently. No, the […]
Drivers and Models Remain Constructive
The State of the Market I’m on the road, so I’ll be keeping my thoughts on the market brief for the next two weeks. From my seat, the key drivers to the current upward trend in the stock market include the expectations for the economy to “boom” in the coming quarters, consumer spending, the anticipated […]
Reopening Trade Gains Steam
Markets weathered an eventful first quarter that began with the storming of the US Capitol, a change in Whitehouse leadership, a literal freeze-up as far south as Houston, the rise and fall of GameStop, and ended with the blow-up of heavily margined hedge fund, Archegos. Even so, the positive shift in national tone post-election in […]
A Goldilocks Moment?
The State of the Market Jamie Dimon attracted a lot of attention last week with his summary of the current economic/market environment. In his highly anticipated annual shareholder letter, the JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO wrote that we are looking at a “Goldilocks moment” and that “the U.S. economy will likely boom.” Talk about cutting to […]
All Good News, But…
The State of the Market Although the exchanges were shut on Friday, yet another important economic indicator came in well above expectations. In case you were otherwise occupied, it is worth noting that nonfarm payrolls accelerated in March by 916,000, which was well above the consensus estimate of 675,000. In addition, the prior two months […]
The Rate Trade Remains In Play
The State of the Market I’m traveling for the next week, so the plan is to keep my oftentimes meandering market missive brief and to the point. So… From my seat, the key driver to the current market is the action in the bond market. In short, it appears that there are now two types […]