Weathermen Were Invented To…
On Friday, we learned that inflation, as defined by the CPI, aka the Consumer Price Index (which, for the record is not the Fed’s preferred inflationary measure), rose 6.8% over the past twelve months. This was higher than expected as well as the highest reading since… wait for it… June, 1982. Juicing the CPI number […]
Santa Is Being Tested
While there is still time for the traditional Santa Claus rally to begin, the current correction in stocks, which so far at least falls into the “garden variety” category, goes against the positive market vibe typically seen at this time of year. It would be easy to say that the recent volatility is being driven […]
Learning A New Letter
Longtime readers know that the primary purpose of my oftentimes meandering market missive is to identify the primary drivers of the market action. The idea is that if you know what is driving prices on a daily/weekly basis then you have a decent shot at staying in tune with primary trends. One additional caveat before […]
Market Model Update 11.22.21
We are on the road heading back home to Colorado this morning, so I’m going to keep this brief. The key focus in the markets has returned to the spread of COVID as new lockdowns have been announced in places like Austria and Germany. With cases on the rise again here in the U.S., investors […]
Market Model Update: 11.15.21
With winter starting to find its way to Colorado, my wife and I decided to head to the desert to enjoy another couple weeks of summer weather. As such, I’m going to let the indicators do the talking this week and next. So, let’s get the week started with a review of the “state of […]
Reasons For The Rally
That giant hissing sound you may hear at the corner of Broad and Wall these days is the air escaping the bear camp’s balloon. Cutting to the chase, the bulls now look to be in stampede mode and have been trampling their opponents on a daily basis. While everybody knows that the current joyride to […]
Looking On The Bright Side
The key data points the markets received were mixed last week on both the economic and earnings fronts. For example, while Consumer Confidence was up, the first read of Q3 GDP was weaker than expected. And while the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Starbucks (SBUX), and Apple (AAPL) reports disappointed, the earnings season as a whole […]
All About The Expectations
The S&P 500 closed out the week just off fresh all-time highs. But, to many investors, the rally is definitely a head-scratcher. So, if you find yourself wondering how stocks can be correcting lower one minute and then back at all-time highs the next, here’s my quick take on the situation. Despite increasing talk about […]
Market Model Review: 10.18.21
The onset of earnings season appears to have energized the bulls as the S&P 500 finished the week closer to all-time highs than the recent lows. To be sure, the major indices remain entrenched in a trading range. But with some good news on the economic front (Core PPI was reported below consensus and retail […]
Future Outlook in Flux
The summer started off with smooth sailing for markets, but ultimately stubbed its toe on concerns over future growth and inflation for a flat performance overall. Looking in the rear-view mirror, this emerging period of uncertainty was as predictable as the strong first-half was. Early in 2021, the Covid reopening trade was still hot. Backed […]