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Jeff Pietsch CFA, Managing Director

Rough Day in the Office?

A few notes about today’s Ground Hog Day “rough day in the office” across asset classes.

Volume was notably low, giving the perception of a buyers’ strike headed into the weekend. While I do not expect “the low” was put in — one day does not a market make, and I don’t yet see anything to indicate a persistent change in market environment beyond a moderate mean reversion after such an unusually strong first month to the year.

Meanwhile, keep an eye on potential fallout next week from today’s Wells Fargo regulatory announcements.

Driving factors were:

  1. Persistent Overbought Conditions
  2. Strong Jobs Featuring 2.9% Wage Inflation
  3. Strong GDP Now Estimate Forecasting over 5% Growth in Q1
  4. Reactionary Rise in Treasuries to 2.85%
  5. Reactionary Rise in USD
  6. Soft Apple/ Alphabet Technology Earnings
  7. Release of FBI Memo on a Friday
  8. Hedging & Rising Correlations Driving VIX to 17.34
  9. Institutional Stock/Bond Mandate Ratios Have Been Increasingly Mismatched, Requiring Re-balancing
  10. Risk-Parity Fund Approaches May Exacerbate Large Moves When they De-Risk


Not Individual Investment Advice