A few notes about today’s Ground Hog Day “rough day in the office” across asset classes.
Volume was notably low, giving the perception of a buyers’ strike headed into the weekend. While I do not expect “the low” was put in — one day does not a market make, and I don’t yet see anything to indicate a persistent change in market environment beyond a moderate mean reversion after such an unusually strong first month to the year.
Meanwhile, keep an eye on potential fallout next week from today’s Wells Fargo regulatory announcements.
Driving factors were:
Persistent Overbought Conditions
Strong Jobs Featuring 2.9% Wage Inflation
Strong GDP Now Estimate Forecasting over 5% Growth in Q1
Reactionary Rise in Treasuries to 2.85%
Reactionary Rise in USD
Soft Apple/ Alphabet Technology Earnings
Release of FBI Memo on a Friday
Hedging & Rising Correlations Driving VIX to 17.34
Institutional Stock/Bond Mandate Ratios Have Been Increasingly Mismatched, Requiring Re-balancing
Risk-Parity Fund Approaches May Exacerbate Large Moves When they De-Risk
OUR TEAM
Jeff Pietsch CFA, Managing Director
Rough Day in the Office?
Volume was notably low, giving the perception of a buyers’ strike headed into the weekend. While I do not expect “the low” was put in — one day does not a market make, and I don’t yet see anything to indicate a persistent change in market environment beyond a moderate mean reversion after such an unusually strong first month to the year.
Meanwhile, keep an eye on potential fallout next week from today’s Wells Fargo regulatory announcements.
Driving factors were:
Not Individual Investment Advice
Jeff Pietsch, CFA
Managing Director
RECENT ARTICLES
Markets Rise on Trade Deals, Strong Earnings & Falling Rates
Markets Push Aside Headline Risks in the First Half
Markets Sour on US Tariff Policy Uncertainty in the First Quarter of 2025
Solid Growth & Rate Cuts Power Stocks to a Historic Return in 2024
Fed Rate Cuts Leave Volatile Summer to End on High Note
Artificial Intelligence-Focused Rally Steamrolls into Summer
Archives
Archives