It’s Not the “When” That Matters
The stock market’s latest joyride to the upside appears to have hit a snag. Well, for now at least, anyway. Up until last week, the bulls were large and in charge based on the idea that (a) the economy and in turn, earnings, were doing just fine, thank you and (b) the Fed was about […]
The Historical Roadmaps for 2024
The drivers of the stock market at this point in the game are fairly clear. The Fed’s next move, the state of the economy, and whether or not 2024 earnings can hold up to the rather lofty expectations appear to be the top factors on investors’ minds these days. So far at least, the earnings […]
It’s Official
It took a while (as in over 500 days), but the S&P 500 and DJIA finally managed to close at fresh all-time highs on Friday. While the bears may argue that the so-called “breakout” must prove itself in the coming days/weeks (Martin Pring was famous for suggesting an additional 3% was needed as confirmation of […]
Powell Spreads Holiday Cheer
Long-time readers know that I am a card-carrying member of The-glass-is-at-least-half-full club. As such, it shouldn’t surprise anyone that I have maintained a fairly upbeat view throughout this year. On the economy. On earnings. On the stock market. On the consumer. And, of course, on inflation. On that last topic, I will admit that the […]
The Words Matter This Time
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. Pullbacks in the markets end quickly when some Fed official, or better yet, a couple FOMC members say something “dovish.” You know, something like, “We see signs of progress on inflation.” Or “Policy is appropriate given the current data.” Or, well, anything including the words “rates” and […]
All About Those Yields
In case you’ve been out on the golf course frantically trying to squeeze in those last few rounds before the weather turns, it is safe to say that the direction of interest rates remains the primary driver of the action in the stock market. From a near-term perspective, anyway. To be sure, there is no […]
All About Yields, But The Good New Is…
Perhaps one of the most important qualities necessary to survive long-term in this business is an open mind. As I’ve lamented a time or two hundred over the years, too many investors are focused on making market predictions and/or about “being right.” Yet, as more than forty years of professional investing experience has taught me, […]
Earnings Are a Problem For Bears
You really have to give the bear camp credit these days. Despite being just plain wrong about the economy, earnings, and the state of the stock market, our furry friends are sticking to their guns. Yes, uber-bear Mike Wilson kinda/sorta did a mea culpa a couple months back. But like the rest of our furry […]
Stocks In Sync With Historical Cycles
Good morning and Happy Friday. After enjoying a strong run higher from mid-March through the end of July, stocks then took a much deserved and highly anticipated breather. And in following the seasonal script, the major indices proceeded to pull back in August. Although it wasn’t fun, the decline was definitely to be expected. It […]
Macro Leans Bullish
With the Fed meeting on tap next week (the rate announcement is slated for 2:00 pm Wednesday with the Powell presser to follow) and the crowd split on whether or not the country’s merry band of central bankers will hike rates again or take a pass to get more data, it is fairly easy to […]