The Banks Did What?
And just like that, the game has changed. Almost completely. Gone is all the fretting about inflation, the Fed’s final few rate hikes, and the corresponding impacts on the economy and earnings. Instead, investors of all shapes and sizes find themselves faced with a banking crisis. To be sure, investors have seen this movie before. […]
The Bostic Boost
Until Thursday afternoon, the path of least resistance for both stock and bond prices appeared to be down. Given the macro narrative, this actually made some sense. After all, with February’s inflation and economic data coming in hotter/better than expected and the Fed pledging to remain “data dependent,” markets had been busy pricing in the […]
Color Me Cautiously Optimistic
Here we go again. Just when you thought positive economic news was a good thing – because strong data support the soft landing (or better) narrative – traders turned the game on its head. Again. Stocks experienced their worst day of the year yesterday on the back of news that S&P Global’s Flash Services PMI […]
All About Inflation And the Lines in the Sand
Good morning and Happy Monday. It is safe to say that most investors are anxiously awaiting the arrival of the monthly update to the Consumer Price Index. Scheduled to be released tomorrow morning, the CPI will provide members of both teams a glimpse into the state of inflation. Although the month-over-month headline number is expected […]
Seasonal Tendencies Are Positive
It is said that those who ignore history are condemned to repeat it. As such, analysts on Wall Street spend an inordinate amount of time on what are called historical analogs and seasonal patterns in the market. The idea to look back at the past and look for historical tendencies. When the calendar pages flip […]
Is A New Bull Market Upon Us?
In last week’s meandering market missive, I opined that, “the next major trend – in either direction – is likely to be driven by the outlook/expectation for the state of the economy”. While I will admit that this isn’t exactly groundbreaking analysis, I continue to believe this is the key to understanding the current big-picture […]
Recession? It’s all About the Timing
With the exceptions of an ugly day/afternoon here and there, the tenor of the market appears to have improved so far in calendar year 2023. And with both the “Santa Claus/Year-End” and the “First Five Days” indicators positive, investors can’t be blamed for looking on the bright side these days. In reality though, you can […]
The Most Important Chart of the Year
As a new year gets underway, it is always important to be on the lookout for changes in the markets. Examples here include changes to leadership, trend, investor sentiment, momentum, and/or the macro-outlook. One of the important lessons I’ve learned is that changes can happen fast – especially as the calendar resets. So far at […]
Quarterly Bounce in Seek of Positive Catalysts
Twenty-twenty-two was not a year that went “according to plan” for markets. Leading in the Federal Reserve had been extremely dovish, emphasizing that there would be no rate hikes until 2023. Market focus remained on the “economic reopening trade,” which had undoubtedly taken equity valuations to extremes. However, Fed rhetoric turned on a dime when […]
Historical Cycles Disagree With Wall Street
In last week’s meandering market missive, I opined that analysts of all shapes and sizes were pretty much singing the same song right now regarding the outlook for the economy, inflation, corporate earnings, and in turn, the stock market. To review, I wrote… The refrain goes something like this. The economy is slowing. The Fed […]